Saturday, January 10, 2009

2009: Singaporean Fresh Graduates Face Grim Prospect in Global Slowdown

1. Fresh graduates face a grim and uncertain job market as a global slowdown seizes the worldwide economy. Increasingly companies are taking a wait-and-see attitude and pending how the first half of 2009 will turn out, many positions are either frozen or curtailed for austerity and cost cutting reasons. For those fresh graduates, the buffet of job choices will also be limited since many industries are going into tailspin especially the manufacturing and financial industries.

The retrenched workers under 30s are not unique. We know of companies doing top rightsizing at the senior management level to drastically cut cost leaving their subordinates to take over role which may cost less than half what their bosses used to be paid. Hence for this season of job losses, the collateral damages is more widespread and deep and it cuts at all levels. Non-performing individuals will be cut and those holding on to their jobs will see themselves embracing more roles, functions and responsibilities.

To get a job is difficult and the job search can last between 1-3 months now especially in the first quarter because of Chinese New Year effect (general slowdown in businesses and lackadaisical work pace) and how the last quarter of 2008 has affected the overall mood of business. On a seasonally adjusted, annualised quarter-on-quarter basis, real GDP fell by 12.5 per cent in fourth quarter of 2008 which is a serious dampener.

The slowdown in manufacturing and financial sectors coupled with the credit crunch will spread to the domestically-oriented segments of the economy, such as property, retail, service and business service
leaving job seekers with poorer prospects. Sectors which are hiring are in the transport service sector, offshore and marine and some niche R&D engineering areas as far our order books are concerned. Rest of the industries are in limbo state.

Pay and employment terms will see some adjustments and job-seekers should be more amenable to such changes as the absorption of such job-shock will bridge them to another possibility and opportunity. Job seeker can consider cross industry move or functional role change.

2. Increasingly companies are also hiring on temporary basis even at management level since they want work done but stay clear of further commitment to workers in uncertain times. Temporary and contract job generally will increase as this is a natural way to steer clear of entitlements and benefits costs at such uncertain times. Job seekers should not see this as an assault to their professionalism or that such interim job arrangement will not lead to any good. They should consider them as long as the job contents fit their skills.

3. The shoot up of unemployment for those in the 30s should not be exceptionally high as I see a more broad level cut which will be wide and deep and will cut through many levels including senior management. Hence it is not age specific.

4.Having more restive young who are unemployed will be disastrous like China with its billion population is struggling with their unemployed graduates. The impacts will be both at the societal and political dimensions. China has more than economic reasons to fear surging graduate unemployment which at the end of 2008 about 1 million of that year's graduates had not found work. In Singapore, the effect is somewhat lessened but nonetheless painful. The government encouraged the embarkation of tertiary education and many paid steeply for their degrees especially those private students. Graduating without a prospect of job will be exasperating for them.

Hopes

Like dreary dreams or rude awakenings

What is really happening?

The night seems so long; many a dream wreaked

Hoping for a light; when will the day break?

To this mad, mad world

Turning all so cold.

Jobs are scarce and fears run wild

Trepidation made confidence turned sour

Will it be me?

Or when will my turn be?

Preemptive retrenchment or whatever it will be

Pray it will not be me.

My Singapore dream has slide from hill to hill

Falling so low and falling still

Will the end be near?

I feel so sad and drear.

Be not afraid so the guru said

In hard and harsh time, heroes are made

The world still belong to those who can adapt fast

This time is bad but it will not last

Unlearn, adapt and relearn new skills

That will lead you to the new hills

Where you can see that the sky is still vast

Over the low hill there are still green grass

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